The Return of El Niño: Impacts and Implications

Introduction

After two and a half years of La Niña, which fueled extremely active hurricane seasons and drought in the southwest, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has declared an end to the climate pattern. A neutral climate pattern has begun, and the likelihood of El Niño developing by fall is 62%(Albeck-Ripka, 2023). In this article, we will describe what El Niño and La Niña are, their pros and cons, and the implications of the incoming El Niño.

What are El Niño and La Niña?

El Niño and La Niña are opposite phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). El Niño occurs when sea-surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean are above average, while La Niña occurs when they are below average. El Niño typically brings drier, warmer conditions to the northern United States and wetter, more flood-prone conditions to the U.S. Gulf Coast and Southeast. La Niña, conversely, brings drier, warmer conditions to the southern half of the United States and wetter weather to the northern half.

Pros and Cons of El Niño and La Niña

El Niño: Pros:

1. Reduces the severity of the Atlantic hurricane season by increasing rapid changes in wind velocity and direction.
2. Can help unleash rain in California, alleviating drought conditions.

Cons:

1. Can lead to floods in the southern United States and along the U.S. Gulf Coast.
2. Increases the risk of flooding, coastal erosion, and beach hazards in Southern California.
3. Can negatively impact marine life and ecosystems due to halting or weakening the upwelling process.

La Niña: Pros:

1. Enhanced agricultural productivity.
2. Provides a cooling effect on global temperatures.

Cons:

1. Can exacerbate drought conditions in the southwest and contribute to dry, warm conditions in the southern United States.
2. Increases the risk of wildfires.

The Incoming El Niño and Its Implications

The development of El Niño in the coming months could result in a less active Atlantic hurricane season and a more active Pacific hurricane season. California may experience increased rain and snow, leading to flooding, landslides, and coastal erosion. However, the lingering impacts of the multi-year La Niña may continue to influence rainfall patterns in California.

Globally, the return of El Niño conditions will likely contribute to another spike in temperatures, with the potential for more intense heatwaves. Human-induced climate change continues to exacerbate these natural climate patterns, increasing global temperatures, altering seasonal rainfall patterns, and intensifying weather extremes.

Conclusion

The return of El Niño has various implications for the United States and the world at large. While some regions may benefit from the change, such as reduced Atlantic hurricane activity and increased rainfall in drought-stricken areas, other regions will face challenges like increased flooding and coastal erosion. It will be interesting to gauge the magnitude of the upcoming El Niño event, and to observe the impact it has on the seascape of the US and neighboring countries.

Reference:

Albeck-ripka, L. (2023, March 9). La Niña has ended, and El Niño may be on the way. The New York Times. Retrieved April 6, 2023, from https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/09/us/la-nina-weather.html

US Department of Commerce, N. O. A. A. (2023, March 13). El Niño and La Niña information. National Weather Service. Retrieved April 6, 2023, from https://www.weather.gov/twc/enso